When to use it. Before making a decision or updating the corresponding product. You can use a spreadsheet, a document or a notebook; no software licences are needed.
How to use it
- Start with the real decision or question you need to resolve and set a cut-off date.
- Fill in only what can be verified; write NOT VERIFIED when data is missing.
- Separate observed facts, hypotheses and implications, and name a reviewer.
- Keep the original version and record relevant changes when you update it.
Do it yourself
Editable template
Focal decision and horizon:
Uncertainty 1 and extremes (in Company A: industrial adoption, early / slow):
Uncertainty 2 and extremes (in Company A: integration and supply, accessible / restrictive):
| Scenario | Causal narrative | Early indicators | Risks | Robust options |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | ||||
| B | ||||
| C | ||||
| D |
Company A case · simulation
Fictional caseGuided example · Company A
Company A crosses industrial adoption (early/slow) with integration and supply (accessible/restrictive) and obtains four worlds: A · Coordinated expansion, B · Blocked demand, C · Open optionality and D · Stagnation. Option O2, a limited pilot with a partner and exit milestones, remains reasonable in several of them.
Educational simulation: fictional information and organisations.
Mistake to avoid
Scenarios are not predictions or invented probability percentages.
Final check
- Is it clear which decision or need it serves?
- Can the evidence be located, and is it dated?
- Are uncertainties and limits made explicit?
- Can someone else repeat or review the work?
Notice: entirely fictional case. The tools are for educational purposes; they do not represent an audit or certification.