# R13 · Scenarios and robust options

**What it is for.** Explore alternative futures and conditional options.

**When to use it.** Before making a decision or updating the corresponding product. You can use a spreadsheet, a document or a notebook; no software licences are needed.

## How to use it

1. Start with the real decision or question you need to resolve and set a cut-off date.
2. Fill in only what can be verified; write **NOT VERIFIED** when data is missing.
3. Separate observed facts, hypotheses and implications, and name a reviewer.
4. Keep the original version and record relevant changes when you update it.

## Editable template

**Focal decision and horizon:**

**Uncertainty 1 and extremes (in Company A: industrial adoption, early / slow):**

**Uncertainty 2 and extremes (in Company A: integration and supply, accessible / restrictive):**

| Scenario | Causal narrative | Early indicators | Risks | Robust options |
|---|---|---|---|---
| A | | | | |
| B | | | | |
| C | | | | |
| D | | | | |

## Guided example · Company A

Company A crosses industrial adoption (early/slow) with integration and supply (accessible/restrictive) and obtains four worlds: A · Coordinated expansion, B · Blocked demand, C · Open optionality and D · Stagnation. Option O2, a limited pilot with a partner and exit milestones, remains reasonable in several of them.

## Mistake to avoid

Scenarios are not predictions or invented probability percentages.

## Final check

- Is it clear which decision or need it serves?
- Can the evidence be located, and is it dated?
- Are uncertainties and limits made explicit?
- Can someone else repeat or review the work?

**Notice:** entirely fictional case. The tools are for educational purposes; they do not represent an audit or certification.