When to use it. Before making a decision or updating the corresponding product. You can use a spreadsheet, a document or a notebook; no software licences are needed.
How to use it
- Start with the real decision or question you need to resolve and set a cut-off date.
- Fill in only what can be verified; write NOT VERIFIED when data is missing.
- Separate observed facts, hypotheses and implications, and name a reviewer.
- Keep the original version and record relevant changes when you update it.
Do it yourself
Editable template
| Hypothesis | Evidence for | Against | Plausible alternative | Discriminating information | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Company A case · simulation
Fictional caseGuided example · Company A
Hypothesis H1: a competitor is scaling up production. H2: it is maintaining a pilot. An announced investment does not by itself prove which one is correct.
Educational simulation: fictional information and organisations.
Mistake to avoid
Do not turn a hypothesis into a fact because there is no contrary evidence.
Final check
- Is it clear which decision or need it serves?
- Can the evidence be located, and is it dated?
- Are uncertainties and limits made explicit?
- Can someone else repeat or review the work?
Notice: entirely fictional case. The tools are for educational purposes; they do not represent an audit or certification.