# R10 · Matrix of hypotheses and alternatives

**What it is for.** Assess rival explanations of a signal.

**When to use it.** Before making a decision or updating the corresponding product. You can use a spreadsheet, a document or a notebook; no software licences are needed.

## How to use it

1. Start with the real decision or question you need to resolve and set a cut-off date.
2. Fill in only what can be verified; write **NOT VERIFIED** when data is missing.
3. Separate observed facts, hypotheses and implications, and name a reviewer.
4. Keep the original version and record relevant changes when you update it.

## Editable template

| Hypothesis | Evidence for | Against | Plausible alternative | Discriminating information | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---
| | | | | | |

## Guided example · Company A

Hypothesis H1: a competitor is scaling up production. H2: it is maintaining a pilot. An announced investment does not by itself prove which one is correct.

## Mistake to avoid

Do not turn a hypothesis into a fact because there is no contrary evidence.

## Final check

- Is it clear which decision or need it serves?
- Can the evidence be located, and is it dated?
- Are uncertainties and limits made explicit?
- Can someone else repeat or review the work?

**Notice:** entirely fictional case. The tools are for educational purposes; they do not represent an audit or certification.