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Cross-cutting case · educational simulation

# An emerging technology. Several signals. A hard decision.

Follow the fictional Company A case from the first news to a set of strategic scenarios. Some signals are relevant; others, ambiguous. Your job is to understand what we know, what is missing and what you would do next.

**Educational simulation: fictional information and organisations.** No company, figure or result represents a real customer case or external evidence.

Cross-cutting case

## The decision

Company A's committee must decide: “Should we devote resources to exploring industrial thermal storage”. The alternatives are to explore internally, contact partners or postpone. None is presented as the automatic answer.

1.  1 **Signal** 
    
    Announcements, patents, pilots and regulatory consultations appear.
    
2.  2 **Question** 
    
    Is the technology moving from technical development to commercial adoption?
    
3.  3 **Evidence** 
    
    Each record is weighed by its source, its independence and its reliability.
    
4.  4 **Analysis** 
    
    Rival hypotheses and scenarios, not a single narrative.
    
5.  5 **Decision** 
    
    Explore internally, contact partners or postpone.
    

## Case sheet

Company A, an industrial company. Industrial thermal storage (heat accumulation for industrial processes). 12 months (model KIQ from lesson 1.3).

| Actor | Role in the case |
| --- | --- |
| **Company A** | The organisation that decides. Management committee, innovation, R&D, purchasing and sales. |
| **Supplier B** | Company that develops the technology and is the main subject of records S01–S16. |
| **Competitor C** | Competitor of Company A that is exploring the same technology; file C01–C04. |
| **Industrial Efficiency Consortium** | Fictional collaborative programme (S10). |
| **Simulated regulatory authority** | Public consultation and postponement of a future requirement (S06, S15). |
| **Fictional client** | Pilot interest with no firm order (S14). |

| Option | What it means |
| --- | --- |
| **Explore internally** | Limited technical assessment with a budget, an owner and a stopping criterion (e.g., the four-week exploration in 5.2). |
| **Contact partners** | Equivalent to O2 · limited pilot with a partner and exit milestones (5.4). |
| **Postpone** | Equivalent to O3 · observation with targeted monitoring and structured review (5.4). |
| **O1 · Invest now in an in-house line** | Irreversible option that the case uses as a contrast; it is not considered robust given the available evidence. |

**Codes that appear in the lessons**

-   **S01–S16**: Main register of signals in the case (dates 2026-02-04 to 2026-09-07). (learning paths 01 and 03 · L04)
-   **F01–F08**: Mini bank of publications for testing filters. (2.3 · L03)
-   **A01–A05**: Claims in a simulated AI response that are audited. (3.2 · L05)
-   **H1–H3 (3.4)**: Hypotheses about the technology: growing experimentation, commercial transition, demand influenced by regulation. (3.4)
-   **C01–C04 and H1–H3 (5.1)**: File on the actor Competitor C and hypotheses about its strategy (product, exploration, defensive protection). (5.1 · L06)
-   **N1–N3**: Pilot observations for designing products by recipient. (6.1)
-   **P-NOR-004**: Memory sheet with versions v1 and v2. (6.2)
-   **A · B · C · D**: Scenarios: coordinated expansion, blocked demand, open optionality, stagnation. (5.4 · R13 · L08)
-   **O1 · O2 · O3**: Strategic options: in-house line, pilot with a partner, structured observation. (5.4 · L08)

**Models shared by lessons, templates and Lab**

-   **Maturity**: Decisions, Coverage, Responsibilities, Products and use, Improvement · scale 0–3 · no average (4.5 · R16 · L01)
-   **Technology radar**: Technical performance, Industrial maturity, Adoption, Ecosystem and supply, Strategic fit · solid/partial/insufficient/not assessable · cross-cutting field: environment, regulation and constraints (5.2 · R12 · L07)
-   **Scenarios**: Axes: industrial adoption (early/slow) × integration and supply (accessible/restrictive) · scenarios A–D · options O1–O3 (5.4 · R13 · L08)

Interactive · Timeline

### Company A’s 16 signals over time

Click each point to read the signal and what it lets you conclude. Filter by indicative reliability.

Timeline of the 16 signals of the Company A case.

Case study

## The 16 records of the case

Fictional signals in date order. Reliability is indicative and part of the exercise.

16 records

| ID | Date | Source type | Record | Signal type | Reliability |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| S01 | 2026-02-04 | Corporate press releasecorporate primary | **Supplier B announces industrial storage research** The fictional company Supplier B announces that it will explore thermal storage systems. It does not report any sales or production. | announced research | High |
| S02 | 2026-02-13 | Industry blogweak secondary | **A new technology will replace all batteries by 2027** Grandiose claim with no data and no identifiable source. | rumor/hyperbole | Low |
| S03 | 2026-03-02 | Simulated patent registerfictional register | **Application published for a heat exchanger** Fictional document P-1001 published; it does not prove a grant or a product. | patent filed | High |
| S04 | 2026-03-09 | Regional presssecondary | **Supplier B presents a laboratory demonstrator** Mentions a laboratory test, with no independent industrial validation. | pilot | Medium |
| S05 | 2026-03-11 | News aggregatorduplicate | **Supplier B presents a laboratory demonstrator** Partial reproduction of S04, with no independent evidence. | duplicate | Low |
| S06 | 2026-03-20 | Simulated regulatory portalfictional official | **Public consultation on energy efficiency** Fictional consultation open until April; it is not equivalent to regulation in force. | public consultation | High |
| S07 | 2026-04-04 | Job postingcorporate primary | **Materials engineering and thermal simulation** The posting suggests a need for capabilities; it does not show headcount growth. | hiring | Medium |
| S08 | 2026-04-18 | Unsourced conversationrumor | **Supplier B will open a plant in Europe** Unverified rumor; location, date and budget unknown. | unconfirmed expansion | Low |
| S09 | 2026-05-02 | Fictional technical reporttechnical | **Safety limitations of thermal storage** Points to potential safety requirements, based on a reduced-scale test. | technical limitation | Medium |
| S10 | 2026-05-12 | Consortium press releasecorporate primary | **Collaborative industrial efficiency programme** Three companies announce cooperation to evaluate prototypes, with no product available. | alliance | High |
| S11 | 2026-06-01 | Simulated project databasefictional register | **Grant awarded for prototype testing** Fictional funding granted; it does not show that milestones have been met. | funding | High |
| S12 | 2026-06-23 | Opinion magazineopinion | **Thermal technology will become the standard** Argumentative article that extrapolates from pilots to the whole sector. | unproven forecast | Low |
| S13 | 2026-07-08 | Simulated test resulttechnical | **Efficiency varies with ambient temperature** Fictional set of results that raises an unresolved technical barrier. | test result | Medium |
| S14 | 2026-07-29 | Fictional client newsletterfictional direct source | **Pilot interest with no firm order** An industrial user shows interest, with conditions pending validation. | client interest | Medium |
| S15 | 2026-08-19 | Simulated regulatory notefictional official | **Decision on future requirement postponed** The regulation remains under review and must not be treated as approved. | schedule change | High |
| S16 | 2026-09-07 | Corporate interviewcorporate primary | **Management confirms exploratory phase** The company does not announce commercialisation or deployment timelines. | project status | High |

Learning paths

## Where Company A appears in the lessons

-   [1.1 Example · Company A · The difference between no news and no coverage Searching is not monitoring](https://academy.innguma.com/en/thinking-in-terms-of-intelligence/searching-is-not-monitoring/#ejemplo-empresa-a-la-diferencia-entre-ausencia-d)
-   [1.2 Example · Company A · A patent is not a launch Information, monitoring, intelligence and decision](https://academy.innguma.com/en/thinking-in-terms-of-intelligence/information-monitoring-intelligence-and-decision/#ejemplo-empresa-a-una-patente-no-es-un-lanzamien)
-   [1.3 Example · Company A · Three routes, not a single narrative From business objectives to intelligence questions](https://academy.innguma.com/en/thinking-in-terms-of-intelligence/from-business-objectives-to-intelligence-questions/#ejemplo-empresa-a-tres-rutas-no-una-unica-narrat)
-   [1.5 Example · Company A · From a news item to a reviewable decision The intelligence cycle: a human, continuous system](https://academy.innguma.com/en/thinking-in-terms-of-intelligence/the-intelligence-cycle-a-human-continuous-system/#ejemplo-empresa-a-de-una-noticia-a-una-decision-)
-   [1.5 Full scene · Company A decision meeting The intelligence cycle: a human, continuous system](https://academy.innguma.com/en/thinking-in-terms-of-intelligence/the-intelligence-cycle-a-human-continuous-system/#escena-completa-reunion-de-decision-empresa-a)
-   [2.1 Company A case · The emerging technology From context to critical watch factors](https://academy.innguma.com/en/designing-a-monitoring-system/from-context-to-critical-watch-factors/#caso-empresa-a-la-tecnologia-emergente)
-   [2.2 Company A case · From four signals to defensible coverage Universe of sources and coverage](https://academy.innguma.com/en/designing-a-monitoring-system/universe-of-sources-and-coverage/#caso-empresa-a-de-cuatro-senales-a-una-cobertura)
-   [2.3 Company A case · One word, different consequences Capture strategy, filters and quality](https://academy.innguma.com/en/designing-a-monitoring-system/capture-strategy-filters-and-quality/#caso-empresa-a-una-misma-palabra-distintas-conse)
-   [2.4 Company A case · From a regulatory change to a responsible decision Roles, governance and dissemination](https://academy.innguma.com/en/designing-a-monitoring-system/roles-governance-and-dissemination/#caso-empresa-a-de-un-cambio-regulatorio-a-una-de)
-   [2.5 Company A case · 30-day pilot (simulation) Designing the monitoring plan](https://academy.innguma.com/en/designing-a-monitoring-system/designing-the-monitoring-plan/#caso-empresa-a-piloto-de-30-dias-simulacion)
-   [3.1 Company A case · An overconfident sentence What generative AI can and cannot do](https://academy.innguma.com/en/ai-applied-to-intelligence/what-generative-ai-can-and-cannot-do/#caso-empresa-a-una-frase-demasiado-segura)
-   [3.2 Company A case · The blog that looks like news Researching with AI in a verifiable way](https://academy.innguma.com/en/ai-applied-to-intelligence/researching-with-ai-in-a-verifiable-way/#caso-empresa-a-el-blog-que-parece-noticia)
-   [3.3 Company A case · The difference between pilot and commercialisation Classifying and structuring information](https://academy.innguma.com/en/ai-applied-to-intelligence/classifying-and-structuring-information/#caso-empresa-a-la-diferencia-entre-piloto-y-come)
-   [3.5 Company A case · Two ways of using AI Agents, tools, persistent knowledge and interoperability](https://academy.innguma.com/en/ai-applied-to-intelligence/agents-tools-persistent-knowledge-and-interoperability/#caso-empresa-a-dos-formas-de-usar-la-ia)
-   [4.1 Company A case: false reassurance Implementing a system is not installing a tool](https://academy.innguma.com/en/method-governance-and-une-166006/implementing-a-system-is-not-installing-a-tool/#caso-empresa-a-la-falsa-tranquilidad)
-   [4.2 Company A case: a signal nobody can approve Responsibilities, governance and evidence](https://academy.innguma.com/en/method-governance-and-une-166006/responsibilities-governance-and-evidence/#caso-empresa-a-una-senal-que-nadie-puede-aprobar)
-   [4.3 Company A case: three outputs, three rhythms Planning and operating the complete process](https://academy.innguma.com/en/method-governance-and-une-166006/planning-and-operating-the-complete-process/#caso-empresa-a-tres-salidas-tres-ritmos)
-   [4.4 Company A case: the wrong metric Evaluating and improving without falling for vanity metrics](https://academy.innguma.com/en/method-governance-and-une-166006/evaluating-and-improving-without-falling-for-vanity-metrics/#caso-empresa-a-la-metrica-equivocada)
-   [4.5 Company A case: do not hide weakness behind an average Responsible self-diagnosis: from self-assessment to a 90-day plan](https://academy.innguma.com/en/method-governance-and-une-166006/responsible-self-diagnosis-from-self-assessment-to-a-90-day-plan/#caso-empresa-a-no-tapar-la-debilidad-con-un-prom)
-   [5.1 Company A case: from alarm to diagnosis Applied competitive intelligence: interpreting moves, not collecting news](https://academy.innguma.com/en/analysis-foresight-and-anticipation/applied-competitive-intelligence/#caso-empresa-a-de-la-alarma-al-diagnostico)
-   [5.2 Company A case: three different pieces of evidence Technologies and innovation activity: telling interest, capability and adoption apart](https://academy.innguma.com/en/analysis-foresight-and-anticipation/technologies-and-innovation-activity-telling-interest-capability-and-adoption-apart/#caso-empresa-a-tres-evidencias-distintas)
-   [5.3 Company A case: three indications and two narratives Weak signals and trends: avoiding both noise and false certainty](https://academy.innguma.com/en/analysis-foresight-and-anticipation/weak-signals-and-trends-avoiding-both-noise-and-false-certainty/#caso-empresa-a-tres-indicios-y-dos-narrativas)
-   [5.4 Company A case: four fictional futures Scenarios: building plausible futures, not predicting the winner](https://academy.innguma.com/en/analysis-foresight-and-anticipation/scenarios-building-plausible-futures-not-predicting-the-winner/#caso-empresa-a-cuatro-futuros-ficticios)
-   [5.5 Company A case: briefing for management Communicating implications and decisions: the intelligence product that can be questioned](https://academy.innguma.com/en/analysis-foresight-and-anticipation/communicating-implications-and-decisions-the-intelligence-product-that-can-be-questioned/#caso-empresa-a-briefing-para-direccion)
-   [6.1 Company A case · Two deliverables, two decisions From the newsletter to the intelligence product](https://academy.innguma.com/en/intelligence-in-the-organisation/from-the-newsletter-to-the-intelligence-product/#caso-empresa-a-dos-entregas-dos-decisiones)
-   [6.3 Company A case · Three areas, three readings Collaboration and networked roles: intelligence that does not depend on a single person](https://academy.innguma.com/en/intelligence-in-the-organisation/collaboration-and-networked-roles-intelligence-that-does-not-depend-on-a-single-person/#caso-empresa-a-tres-areas-tres-lecturas)
-   [6.4 Company A case · Did the briefing help? Measuring the value of intelligence without promising causality](https://academy.innguma.com/en/intelligence-in-the-organisation/measuring-the-value-of-intelligence-without-promising-causality/#caso-empresa-a-sirvio-el-briefing)
-   [6.5 Company A case · The system that continues Continuous improvement: turning every monitoring cycle into organisational learning](https://academy.innguma.com/en/intelligence-in-the-organisation/continuous-improvement-turning-every-monitoring-cycle-into-organisational-learning/#cierre-del-caso-empresa-a-el-sistema-que-continu)